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Dueto International Raw Material Prices Increase, 2020 Lithium Battery 1RMB/Wh Goal Suspense
Jan 12, 2018

At present, China's new energy vehicle subsidy gradually Xianpo. For new-energy vehicles, the subsidy Xianpo means new energy vehicles are more sensitive to battery costs. In fact, it is clearly stated in the "Medium and long term development plan" of the automobile industry, "by 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2 million, power battery monomer than the energy reached 300 watts/kg above, and strive to achieve 350 watts/kg, the system than energy to achieve 260 watts/kg, the cost reduced to 1 yuan/ Tile is below. "But the above target can be achieved, the industry has triggered a hot debate in recent times." Gan Jianlai, Deputy Secretary-General of China Automotive Engineering Society, pointed out that with the international price of raw materials such as lithium ore crazy rise, the cost of power battery has a greater resistance, 2020 cost to 1 yuan/Washi Hope not.


Five-year price drop 60%


Recently, Ministry of Industry spokesman Zheng said, as China becomes the world's largest power battery producer, China's battery enterprise competitiveness has increased significantly, compared with 2012, China's power cell energy density increased 1.7 times times, the price is down 60%.


The same is true of foreign power battery industry. The data show that the Japanese and Korean enterprises battery prices from 2010 600~800 USD/kwh (about RMB 3.9~5.2 yuan/Washi) to the current 150~200 USD/kwh (about RMB 0.98~1.3 yuan/Washi). According to Prabhakarpatil, chief executive of LG Chemical Power Battery Division, "Most electric vehicles cost about 400 USD/kwh (about 2.6 yuan/Washi) and Tesla is 240 USD/kwh (about 1.56 yuan/Washi)." ”


As we all know, the high price is one of the important factors restricting the further acceptance and recognition of new energy vehicles by consumers, therefore, how to reduce the cost of the power battery which occupies more than 50% of the cost of the whole vehicle manufacturing is the top priority. However, for new energy vehicles, the current power battery price is difficult to make it in the competition with traditional fuel vehicles, with a price advantage. "Battery cost is the most concerned problem in the new energy automobile industry at present." Euyangminggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor of automotive engineering at Tsinghua University, points out that across the globe, China, the United States and Europe have a target of 1000 yuan, 100 U.S. dollars and 100 euros per kilowatt hour in the battery system, compared with the obvious target price of 1000 yuan/kwh in China, The ideal target should be 100 USD/kwh.


Lithium, cobalt and other raw materials prices soaring external dependence of high


As Gan Jianlai said, some metal prices have risen more than expected as a result of demand for new energy and materials industries, downstream replenishment of inventories, and hoarding by the fund side. In the 2017, the marginal pull of new energy vehicles on lithium-ore demand still exceeds the global increase in lithium ore, and the price of lithium carbonate remains strong. At the same time, prices of tungsten, titanium and antimony have also risen in varying degrees. Data show that because of mineral reserves and capacity constraints, China relies heavily on foreign lithium resources, 70% of which need to import from abroad.


In addition to lithium ore, the demand for cobalt ore from China's electric vehicle manufacturers has also increased sharply, leading to a 2017-year increase in the price of cobalt ore that has left other metal mines far behind. As of December 25 last year, metal cobalt rose by as much as 97.35%, refreshing its highest price record since 2001. The same as lithium ore, China's cobalt resources accounted for only 1% of the global total, cobalt production capacity accounted for 5% of global capacity, cobalt materials are also heavily dependent on imports, and dependence of more than 90%.


Based on this, Changshu city, Jiangsu Province, the director of Environmental Technology Research Institute Shayongkang A burst of blood to point out: "Due to a serious lack of resources, China's power battery raw materials prices depend on international supply prices, China's auto enterprises said not counted." Coupled with the battery enterprise labor costs and hardware equipment prices in recent years in the trend of rising, power battery cost reduction is very difficult. ”


According to the head of a power battery enterprise in Jiangsu Province, through the upgrading of technical equipment, large-scale production and to the upstream raw materials suppliers, such as a series of measures, the price of the product fell by more than 25% this year, but by the upstream cobalt, lithium and other raw materials, the impact of rising costs at least 15%


Many moves to reduce costs is the King


Interestingly, some battery companies are full of confidence when discussing the 2020-year long term development plan for the automotive industry to reduce the cost of battery to 1 yuan/Washi below.


Held before the China Four Congress, Anchi technology general manager Hsu put forward: "1 yuan/Washi goal, if not included in the tax, not to 2020 will certainly be able to achieve, if the tax, the price of about 1.17 yuan/Washi." "Zhenhua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. General manager Li Shujun even think, not only the cost can reach 1 yuan/watt, the price may also be reduced to 1 yuan/Washi level."


"Battery cost reduction is to promote the development of new energy vehicles, in recent years, with the increase in battery energy density, as well as the sharp increase in production and demand, the initial large number of research and development costs diluted, the scale effect is gradually highlighted." "In the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Engineering expert Group leader Wang Binggang View, to 2020 China's battery cost reduced to 1 yuan/Washi no problem."


As for factors such as raw material price rise, Wang Binggang bluntly, lithium ore and other raw materials, such as the global reserves are very rich, the demand for electric vehicles is not enough to cause a serious shortage of resources. Recently, there are securities investment analysts believe that the global lithium, cobalt and other minerals have been seriously overheated investment situation, this year's price or will show a more stable development trend.


However, at present the international consensus is that only when the cost of power battery monomer reduced to 100 U.S. dollars/kwh, new energy vehicles can be truly large-scale promotion of use. Shang, chief technology officer of the battery, admits that in order to achieve the international level of product competitiveness, 0.6~0.8 yuan/Washi battery cost is ideal. In this respect, Shayongkang and Wang Binggang suggest that the battery cost can be reduced by increasing the cycle life of power batteries, increasing the recovery and utilization of batteries, enlarging the scale effect and improving the yield of good products.


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